Another Detailed Look Into Our Betting Systems.
Public Swings & Line Moves
Historically it has been more profitable to bet against teams who made the playoffs in their most recent season. Although there is no theory given for this betting system, it makes sense that teams who made the playoffs are overvalued in the preseason. Typically playoff teams will let their bench players log big minutes while allowing their stars to rest up and remain healthy for the start of the regular season. On the flip side, cellar dwellers are more likely to allow their young starters to play significant minutes as they attempt to gain momentum during the preseason.
We also look at line movement as well from the opening spread. A positive number would mean the line got better, so +2 would mean a team went from +4 to +6 or from -5 to -3. A negative number would mean that the line got worse, so -2 would mean a team went from +4 to +2 or from -5 to -7. In this case, our system examined what happened when the line remained static or improved for the team, meaning that they either became a larger underdog or smaller favorite. This helps find lines that are artificially inflated by public perception.
Our past research has indicated that underdogs have been historically undervalued as the betting public tends to overwhelmingly prefer favorites and overs. In fact, simply highlighting underdogs from leads to a record of 198-164 with +25.92 units won and a 7.2% return on investment (ROI).
We’ve also noticed that large underdogs tend to cover the spread at an even higher rate, so perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising to see that the system results improve dramatically when the system focuses on underdogs of at least 4.5 points.
We also focus on how underdogs of at least 4.5-point fare when they become even larger underdogs against a team that made the playoffs in the previous season. Since 2005, teams fitting this criteria have gone 135-88 (60.5%) with +41.36 units earned and a spectacular 18.5% return on investment. If we expand our contrarian viewpoint and focus on teams receiving no more than 40% of spread bets, the ROI jumps to 21.6% but the actual units won is nearly cut in half.
10/3/15 Update: This system went 10-2 ATS (+7.62 units) during the 2014 preseason and is now 146-90 (+49.93 units) overall.
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