7 Reasons

Why us? Keep Reading.

Here are 7 strong reasons, explained in detail, as to why you should join Bet With Confidence.

This Is Why We're The Best

Intro

First time inquiring about the pick-selling or “tout” industry? First of all, although we may sell our picks, at $49.99 we hardly consider ourselves a “tout”, especially when it comes to our customer service, and how much we care about each of our members.

At Bet With Confidence, we're always upfront, and express full transparency in our records and our service.

We would like to spend some time and answer many of the questions that we often hear from prospective members when deciding whether to sign up and shed some light into what goes on behind the scenes.

7 Reasons
  1. Unbeatable Value
  2. We Aren't The "Public"
  3. The Community
  4. One Lie Ruins It All
  5. Plays Everyday
  6. Attainable Lines
  7. 24/7 Customer Service

#1: Our $49.99 Value is Unbeatable

Lets just jump into your biggest hesitation right now of joining - it isn’t free. We are not here to claim we are the best handicappers in the world, in fact, never trust any handicapper that says “we never lose”. Instead what we want to show is that for less than a dollar a day not only will you receive daily picks, but you’ll join a community of dedicated bettors who love sports, and a desire to make money.

After joining Bet With Confidence, you’ll understand what you have been missing out on in the world of sports investing.

Many bettors will waste a boatload of money on a week or a month subscription, when the results depend solely on their timing and some luck. Not to mention, the amount that they have to bet simply just to break even and offset the cost of the service is sometimes ridiculous. It becomes impossible to be a long term client of those type of services, and very seldom will anyone follow someone long enough to see the long term consistency, which is simply the most important factor in this business.

With our affordable membership of $49.99, there is true value. Not only for our consistency, but the ability to be a Bet With Confidence member for a long period of time, not having to worry about the high membership cost, and being able to gain a substantial profit above your membership fee.

Not that we have to justify such a low subscription cost, but we will break it down for you anyways:

When we display our records per sport and our units won, we do not factor in the $49.99 a month cost of the service itself. To rectify this issue we wanted to determine the break-even points for bettors — i.e. how much money should be bet on each game to justify a subscription? The results are reflected in the table below.

If we look solely at our performance during the 2014-2015 Football and Basketball seasons which took place September 2014 - April 2015 (9 months), we won +92.84 units.

+92.84 September 2014 - April 2015
(9 months)

$269.91 9 Month BWC Cost

$2.90 Bet Size To Break Even

If you are paying $49.99 per month for our monthly subscription, you would have only needed to bet $1.94 on selection to break even. Anything above that, is pure profit.

If you were a $20.00 bettor, and followed our picks for football and basketball last season, you would have gained $1,856 - $270 = $1,576 for a Return on Investment of 483.7%. Try and get that return in the stock market.

This fits our goal of allowing novice bettors to use our picks and information and still turn a profit.

#2: We Aren’t The Public - We Are The Value

Other services that sell picks will often release some sort of explanation around their picks, such as “The New England Patriots are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday night games,” which would give a tout a easy, simple, stat for a play on the Patriots. The problem with these narratives is they likely mean nothing at all. To put it simply, 11 games is flat out just not a substantial sample size. Over the last 11 Thursday Night football games that the Patriots played over the past several seasons, many different players and coaches were part of them. Therefore, this statistic has no predictive relevance.

What Bet With Confidence looks at are not the simple statistics that the public may look at, and easily find by a simple Google search. What we like to focus on are statistics that remain true over several seasons, independent of the teams and players. For example, let’s say the Redskins have a high turnover differential and have become overrated early on in the season leading to a win streak. Turnover differential is difficult to predict in the future, so teams that perform well largely due to turnover differential are likely to be overrated going forward if they can't sustain that turnover rate.

NFL Team A (Record 5-2):

+7

Turnover Differential

30th

Defense

30th

Rushing Yards Allowed

20th

Passing Yards Allowed

21st

Opponents Yards Per Play

NFL Team B (Record 6-1)

+10

Turnover Differential

29th

Defense

27th

Rushing Yards Allowed

25th

Passing Yards Allowed

23rd

Opponents Yards Per Play

If these teams can't maintain that turnover differential, they are likely to have some struggles in the second half of the season.

What a lot of public bettors will also look at are simple against-the-spread trends. They sounds great, but the reality is they likely have very little predictive value. A team that has covered five games in a row is no more likely to cover in its sixth game than any other team. In fact, you could make a case that a team that has covered five games in a row is likely to become overrated by the linemakers or the public.

#3: The Community

Our Slack chatroom is lively every night, and has been the best thing for BWC, bringing our members closer together as we talk about sport analytics, and get pumped up for the games we all have money on each night.

#4: A Single Lie Destroys A Whole Reputation

Honesty

The thing that drives me crazy are the other touts that quote half truths about their record publicly, however it won't be their complete record. Often it is just a subset that paints their performance in the best light. For example, if someone on twitter says “ I'm 10-1 in my last 11 Monday night games.” You will often been drawn in when you see their performance when it only suits them best, such as a win percentage over the last week or two. This is a common mistake called selection bias, where there is an inherent flaw in the sample that is being used to draw conclusions. Anyone can make a case with numbers if they get to choose their sample and sample size.

In order to really assess someone's performance, you need to look at a statistically significant amount of time.
Our Records

At Bet With Confidence, we deal with this rather simply. We post every pick (win or lose) that we have made on one page found here and display all of our records since the season started.

Bet With Confidence #5: Plays Everyday Perfected Volume
Love that feeling of placing a bet? Don’t have the time to do your own research daily and put the time in on the game? Let us handle that for you. We release plays every single day, regardless of the day or holiday. We work everyday to provide our members with the best possible selections out there, all year long.

Reason #6: Don’t go searching to get our line - We tell you where it is.

In the real world, this is called "truth in advertising" and really just comes down to touts holding themselves to a high ethical standard -- which most don't.

Frequently, you will see a tout release a bet with a line that actually doesn't exist or releases picks with no lines attached to them. Because sports betting is fundamentally a market, the prices that you see will always be dynamic. This means that timing will always be of the essence and touts must address this timing risk.

How do we solve this? When we release our picks on twitter @BWCMembers, our subscribers are given the date and time, sport, rotation number, team, line, units, and the sportsbook the bet was placed.

BWC Card

When Bet With Confidence releases a play, 99.9% of the time it will be the line from the following books: 5Dimes, BetOnline, BetDSI. These books are all available to players Worldwide and provide a good mix of sharp and square books. In addition, our plays are released in a timely fashion so our members have ample time to find the best line, and place their bet.

#7: We Care

Unlike most touts that hide under the biggest rock when their picks go south, you can text us, email us, tweet us, or call us at anytime. We can confidently say that we will get back to you as soon as possible to make sure your experience with us is the best in class. If you have any questions about our service, please contact us directly at win@betwith.co and we will reply as quickly as possible.

Questions?

Contact

BWC Dave

Meet Dave. He’s here to answer your questions about sports betting or our service. Please do not hesitate to contact him with any questions, comments or concerns by filling out this form.

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